Computer Science > Machine Learning
[Submitted on 2 May 2024]
Title:A deep causal inference model for fully-interpretable travel behaviour analysis
View PDF HTML (experimental)Abstract:Transport policy assessment often involves causal questions, yet the causal inference capabilities of traditional travel behavioural models are at best limited. We present the deep CAusal infeRence mOdel for traveL behavIour aNAlysis (CAROLINA), a framework that explicitly models causality in travel behaviour, enhances predictive accuracy, and maintains interpretability by leveraging causal inference, deep learning, and traditional discrete choice modelling. Within this framework, we introduce a Generative Counterfactual model for forecasting human behaviour by adapting the Normalizing Flow method. Through the case studies of virtual reality-based pedestrian crossing behaviour, revealed preference travel behaviour from London, and synthetic data, we demonstrate the effectiveness of our proposed models in uncovering causal relationships, prediction accuracy, and assessing policy interventions. Our results show that intervention mechanisms that can reduce pedestrian stress levels lead to a 38.5% increase in individuals experiencing shorter waiting times. Reducing the travel distances in London results in a 47% increase in sustainable travel modes.
References & Citations
Bibliographic and Citation Tools
Bibliographic Explorer (What is the Explorer?)
Litmaps (What is Litmaps?)
scite Smart Citations (What are Smart Citations?)
Code, Data and Media Associated with this Article
CatalyzeX Code Finder for Papers (What is CatalyzeX?)
DagsHub (What is DagsHub?)
Gotit.pub (What is GotitPub?)
Papers with Code (What is Papers with Code?)
ScienceCast (What is ScienceCast?)
Demos
Recommenders and Search Tools
Influence Flower (What are Influence Flowers?)
Connected Papers (What is Connected Papers?)
CORE Recommender (What is CORE?)
IArxiv Recommender
(What is IArxiv?)
arXivLabs: experimental projects with community collaborators
arXivLabs is a framework that allows collaborators to develop and share new arXiv features directly on our website.
Both individuals and organizations that work with arXivLabs have embraced and accepted our values of openness, community, excellence, and user data privacy. arXiv is committed to these values and only works with partners that adhere to them.
Have an idea for a project that will add value for arXiv's community? Learn more about arXivLabs.